At the end of the last election I was optimistic of a labour return to power in 2020, as long as Labour met its need to re-establish fiscal credibility head reconnect with the public.
However, right now, all the signs are that the we seem determined to learn entirely the wrong lessons from its defeat in May and focus on a return to the ruinous days of Michael Foot which didn’t see us regaining power until Blair, mere 3 elections later. Rather than reach out to where the public is, many members have decided that, in the name of differentiation, the old ways of socialism were right all along. We are now told that Labour doesn’t need a new script, it should never have deviated so far from the old one. We are ridiculously told that the answer now lies in renationalising the railways, scrapping tuition fees and completely rejecting anything that can be remotely labelled ‘austerity’. Instead we should be encouraging competition and apprenticeship schemes to reduce the university profit motive with its course provision.
However, this socialist view is now frequent in the labour party’s new voters, thanks to the rise of Jeremy Corbyn. The idea is that the Labour Party membership in 2015 is far to the left of that which narrowly chose Miliband in 2010. If you have any doubts, just look at the way Liz Kendall has been treated, disgracefully and cynically labelled as a ‘Tory’ for daring to challenge the orthodoxy of the Labour left.
In the interest of fairness I must ask: is this all such a bad thing?
It is clear from Osborne’s most recent budget that the working poor are going to suffer further under this government and that needs opposing. No complaints on that here. It is vitally important that we challenge the Conservatives on their balancing of the books on the back of the poor.
We, the labour party, have never had an issue diagnosing problems but this is not good enough anymore and never should have been. We need to focus on providing credible solutions to these diagnoses that the public see as deliverable. This is why in the 2015 General Election, Miliband’s policies such as the energy price freeze or scrapping ‘non-doms’ could’ve been popular, the NHS could have been the public’s number one issue and Miliband could’ve lead Cameron on ‘understands people like me’, yet Labour still lost. People didn’t buy that we could deliver despite the clear and obvious problems caused by the tories. These include the doubling of the national debt, increase in zero hour’s contracts, cost of living crisis, failure to meet immigration targets and a growing disenfranchisement with foreign super powers (indeed Iceland have a better trade deal with China than we do). Solving the issues of labour credibility and the issue of tackling the tories dismantling of public services is key and a return to the 1980s, Michael Foot, socialist ideology doesn’t do it.
Being in opposition is like playing snooker. Your opponent is at the table and there isn’t much else you can do but watch and wait your turn. To get back to the table your opponent has to miss but when they do you have to be ready. The point is the Conservatives are at the table, they are in government and call the shots. But they will miss from time to time and when they do, Labour must be ready. This means choosing a leader that the public can credibly see in Downing Street that picks their battles well. Miliband was not this person and we are about to repeat our mistakes from something that is so recent that it can barely be called history. We need someone that can regain the public’s trust in Labour to manage the economy, with all of the tough decisions that entails and someone that provides imaginative solutions to the critical issues facing the country. It’s about growing the economy, dealing with policy issues caused by Britain’s ageing population, providing the jobs of the future and setting out Britain’s place in the world whilst keeping the country together. We need someone like, the ignorantly named “Tory”, Liz Kendall.
Jeremy Corbyn is definitely not that leader we need. His campaign certainly offers a certain clarity in contrast to some of his opponents. He opposes austerity full stop and is relaxed about deficits and debt. I suspect this clarity is what appeals to many Labour members. He offers a comforting, left-wing, anti-Tory message. That’s fine. But he has offered precious little to convince anyone of intellectual seriousness, who is not ignorant of the situation we are living in, that his positions would carry the support of the wider public. He might be relaxed about public spending and immigration but they are not. In other words he is unelectable and as a result, we will be, with Tory governments dominating for the next two elections at least.
The reality is that if Labour moves too far left, the country will just keep returning Conservative governments. There is a reason why so many Conservatives want Corbyn as leader. His positions on issues ranging from renationalising industry to the Monarchy would be hung around his neck. The only reason they haven’t been so far is because his fellow candidates want his second preferences – especially now he is doing well – so they don’t want to attack him too much. Liz Kendall will never get his second preferences so it is now time for her to attack Jeremy Corbyn because there are many fears that it is already growing to be too late to stop this liberal self-destruction.
Deep down we know how a Corbyn leadership ends up. He would quickly be defined as a radical throwback to times past, Labour’s poll ratings would tank and MPs would move against him. A coronation of someone else would likely follow, much as the Conservatives did when they replaced Iain Duncan Smith with Michael Howard in 2003. Labour doesn’t make a habit of removing leaders but it is hard to see the PLP serving under a leader that they didn’t really want on the ballot in the first place for long.
Corbyn’s current momentum could merely be the “vent before the vote”, where Labour activists gather at CLP meetings to nominate the most left-wing candidate but actually vote for someone else in the end. After all, this is what happened with Diane Abbot in the last leadership election. In any case, CLP meetings are not always representative of the membership overall and even if Corbyn tops the ballot on first preferences, he is unlikely to have the breadth of support needed to actually win. A Corbyn victory is still not the most likely outcome.
But whoever wins, what matters most is the impact that this contest has on the Labour Party and its future direction. It is vital that the next Labour leader has the guts to lead the party in the direction it needs to go – with emphasis on the word ‘lead’. This means making the primary focus of the Labour Party’s pursuit of power to be convincing the public that it deserves another chance. Re-engaging with business and tough decisions on spending priorities will be needed. Once in government it will be trusted to be progressive again, even transformative, but for now the task is to regain credibility. That, above all else, should be the next leader’s priority
Labour only wins when it marries its core values to the reality of the day, delivering a vision for the country that commands broad support – and yes that means winning over Conservative voters too. Perhaps it will take the Labour membership another big defeat to really get this. I hope not. Otherwise, Labour in 2015 could become the Tories of 2001 – set for an almighty internal fight and an awful long way from being in power again. Labour members need to decide how much they really want to be in power.
It’s time to wake up and get real.
beyond the Edge of reason 